/ May 04 / Weekly Preview
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Monday:
N/A
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Tuesday:
ADP Employment Change Weekly
CB Consumer Confidence (89.5 exp.)
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Wednesday:
Building Permits Prel (1.39M exp.)
Durable Goods Orders MoM (0.5% exp.)
Housing Starts (1.4M exp.)
Fed Interest Rate Decision (hold expected)
Fed Press Conference
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Thursday:
EU GDP Growth Rate YoY (0.8% exp.)
EU Inflation Rate YoY (2.9% exp.)
US GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2.1% exp.)
Personal Income / Spending
Initial Jobless Claims (215K exp.)
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Friday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (53.2 exp.)
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Monday:
Verizon Communications Inc.
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
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Tuesday:
Coca-Cola Company (The)
T-Mobile US, Inc.
Corning Incorporated
Booking Holdings Inc.
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
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Wednesday:
Alphabet Inc.
Microsoft Corporation
Amazon.com, Inc.
Meta Platforms, Inc.
KLA Corporation
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Thursday:
Apple Inc.
Eli Lilly and Company
Mastercard Incorporated
Caterpillar, Inc.
Merck & Company, Inc.
Sandisk Corporation
Western Digital Corporation
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Friday:
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Chevron Corporation
Colgate-Palmolive Company
Earnings Accelerate
This week’s Preview article will be brief, as I am travelling through the country doing demos and business events - Andrei
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The S&P 500 reached a new record high, capping a week in which earnings announcements took precedence over geopolitical headlines. Put in another way, the market stopped caring about the conflict with Iran and focused on what actually matters: the corporate bottom line.
5 Magnificent 7 companies reported last week and the results were, overall, strong enough to shift the narrative. The market’s center of gravity shifted from the fear inducing geopolitics to the momentum driven EPS growth story.
Microsoft kicked off the earnings season with a solid beat, reporting EPS of $4.27 versus estimates of $4.06, though investor attention centered on Azure performance.
Alphabet stood out as the strongest performer, with Google Cloud revenue jumping 63% year-over-year, well ahead of the 47% consensus, while its cloud backlog nearly doubled to $460 billion.
Amazon posted respectable AWS growth of 28%, beating expectations by 200 basis points, but its free cash flow plunged from about $26 billion a year earlier to just $1.2 billion amid heavy data center capital spending.
Meta exceeded revenue forecasts but disappointed markets by raising its 2026 capex guidance to $125–$145 billion and reporting a 20 million drop in users, partly due to internet issues in Iran, sending the stock lower.
Apple capped the week with its best-ever March quarter, delivering EPS of $2.01 against $1.95 expected, revenue of $111.18 billion versus $109.66 billion forecasts, 22% iPhone growth, and another record for Services. The stock rose on the results, and investors reacted positively to news that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, with hardware chief John Ternus taking over.
Besides Mag-7 stocks, the earnings backdrop is even more constructive. With more than 140 S&P 500 companies now having reported, earnings season remains exceptionally strong: 84% have beaten EPS estimates and 81% have topped revenue forecasts, both well above their one-, five-, and ten-year averages.
According to Factset, the blended Q1 earnings growth rate has climbed to 15.1%, putting the index on track for a sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth. Notably, Goldman Sachs highlights that 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates have risen 4% since late January despite geopolitical tensions, moving in the exact opposite direction pessimists expected when oil briefly spiked to $113 a barrel.
However, the Strait of Hormuz remains technically closed. Brent is trading at $109 as of this writing. Yet the S&P 500 hit an all-time high. BofA gives a good and brief explainer:
“Earnings estimates have continued to climb despite the conflict.”
That’s all there really is to it as far as stocks are concerned. The market is behaving exactly as historical patterns predict, discounting a geopolitical event that has so far failed to meaningfully dent corporate earnings power.
Meanwhile, the AI capital expenditure cycle continues to accelerate rather than slow, with combined hyperscaler spending now on track to reach $725 billion in 2026 — a number that seemed unthinkable just twelve months ago. That massive spending is translating directly into earnings for companies across the AI infrastructure chain, including GE Vernova, Nvidia, Vertiv, TSMC, and many others, and those benefits are already appearing in the strong quarterly results.
The technical picture is clearly bullish but slightly stretched. We are trading in a confirmed buying regime, with momentum extended and rising. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted consecutive record closes. Breadth was solid in the equal-weight index and the Russell 2000 outperformed.
We will use the unadjusted chart for today’s analysis, with the price action implying a 16% CAGR trend, pointing to a $793 price target for SPY in the next 10 months. Resistance stands at $735 (+2%, R1), with support at $702 (-2.5%, M-Trend). The stochastic reading of 95/100 suggests the market is overbought (though that does not necessarily mean “overvalued”). GEX remains positive on all timeframes and Dark Pools were firmly in accumulation mode.
This week brings the resolution to last week’s FOMC-GDP-Magnificent 7 moves. April Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday serve as the main event. ISM Services on Tuesday will show how 70% of the economy is doing. A fresh wave of earnings from Palantir, AMD, Disney, Arm, CoreWeave, and others will test whether the post-earnings rally has legs.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q1 results and annual meeting this weekend will draw close attention, especially Buffett’s comments on the $373 billion cash pile, valuations, tariffs, and geopolitics. Palantir reports after the close today as the first major test, with expected EPS roughly doubling and focus on its government contracts.
Tuesday brings ISM Services data, a key gauge of whether economic weakness is spreading from manufacturing into the broader consumer economy, along with AMD and Arista results for further AI infrastructure signals.
Wednesday features consumer-sector earnings from Disney, Uber, and CVS, plus Arm and AppLovin after the close as high-momentum AI plays.
Thursday’s preliminary Q1 productivity report is important for the Fed’s inflation outlook, while CoreWeave’s debut as a pure-play AI infrastructure company will be watched for GPU utilization trends.
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions will be the week’s biggest data point, alongside University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations. Overall, this is the week that will either confirm or reject last week’s narratives.
Given that we have a green light from our buying regime and the Enterprise strategy is allocated risk-on, our view is constructive for the next period.
Our Trading Strategy (Sigma Portfolio)
With more than 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results, blended earnings growth is holding at a robust 15.1% year-over-year, positioning the index for a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains. Net profit margins have climbed to 13.4%, the highest level since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2009. Meanwhile, 84% of reporting companies have beaten EPS estimates, comfortably above the five-year average of 78%. As the earnings season wraps up, these figures could move even higher.
We don’t want to overcomplicate the investing process, despite the inherent risks always present when investing. For now, the outlook is unambiguously bullish. We will maintain our risk-on positioning, looking to further buy a dip, should it occur.
Disclosures / Disclaimers: This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this blog post. I currently do not own or plan to own any position, long or short, in the securities mentioned.
I am not a financial advisor licensed in the United States. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject to change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this blog post.
I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter. Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.
I wrote this blog post myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I do not have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this blog post. The information in this blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.
The primary purpose of this blog post is to share industry expertise and research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.