/ March 25
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Tuesday:
New Home Sales (0.68M exp.)
CB Consumer Confidence---
Wednesday:
Durable Goods Orders MoM (-1% exp.)
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Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims (225K exp.)
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Friday:
Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.3% exp.)
Personal Income MoM (0.4% exp.)
Personal Spending MoM (0.5% exp.) -
Tuesday:
McCormick & Company
GameStop
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Wednesday:
Dollar Tree
Chewy
Paychex
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Thursday:
Lululemon Athletica
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Friday:
N/A
Daily Briefing
*The stock market finally put in a strong showing and rallied on optimism that the Trump administration may adopt a more targeted approach to impending tariffs, which are set to come into effect on April 2; of course, part of the rally was simply to to extreme bearish sentiment and short term oversold conditions;
*The S&P 500 climbed +1.8%, closing at a two-week high and above its 200-day moving average (5,752), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added +1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced +2.3%;
*SPY closed above the key 200-DMA level and now the rally / consolidation scenario comes into play; normally, the 200-DMA (or S1 level) should now act as technical support; to the upside, we would expect a rejection near the 50-DMA ($587) or very close by ($583 - 50% retracement of current correction); that would also be the level where we would act to reduce exposure in our live portfolio;
*The MACD has now clearly signaled a BUY crossover, which should act as a short term support for the market;
*Technology stocks led the rally, especially names that sold off to start 2025; Tesla (TSLA, +11.9%) and NVIDIA (NVDA, +3.2%) were standouts in that respect; Tesla shares are still -26% lower this year, and NVIDIA has shown a -12% decline since the start of the year, despite yesterday’s advance;
*On average, yesterday’s gain for the top S&P 500 companies is +3.11%; notably, ALL companies except META and LLY are negative year-to-date; also, META and LLY both posted above average returns yesterday, a notable fact given they are both included in some of our top strategies;
*Positive economic indicators further bolstered sentiment; the preliminary March S&P Global US Services PMI, which increased to 54.3 from 51.0 in February, overshadowed a contraction in the preliminary March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 from 52.7 in February;
*Service sector output rebounded strongly after hitting a 15-month low in February, driven by improved business inflows, strengthening customer demand, and better weather conditions. However, exports remained a weak spot, declining for the third straight month.
*In some major positioning shifts originating in the options market, dealers are now Gamma Positive for SPY and most other sector ETFs; this should translate into more stable trading going forward as dips will be bought and rallies will be sold into, reducing close-to-close volatility; for bulls, this is an overwhelmingly strong signal, as the last time SPY was GEX positive was February 20, when the sell-off originally started;
*In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields climbed in a manifestation of increased risk appetite among investors. The 10-yr yield was up eight basis points to 4.33%;
*TLT declined -1.03%, towards technical support at $89; in our estimation, this decline could continue as far as stocks remain bid;