/ April 10
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Thursday:
Core Inflation Rate YoY (3% exp.)
Inflation Rate YoY (2.6% exp.)
Initial Jobless Claims (225K exp.)
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Friday:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (54.5 exp.)PPI MoM (0.2% exp.)
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Thursday:
CarMax
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Friday:
JPMorgan Chase
BlackRock
Morgan Stanley
BNY Mellon
Wells Fargo
Daily Briefing
*Yesterday was a historic session for stocks; the Nasdaq Composite soared nearly +12%, the S&P 500 spiked +9.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced nearly 3,000 points;
*The monumental rally followed President Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension on recently imposed tariffs, reducing them to 10% for countries that have not retaliated against the U.S.; however, the rate on imports from China increased to 125% from 104%;
*SPY bounced agressivley, as we have imagined it would do in the eventuality of any respite in the tariff drama; the price action almost looks like a “database error” on our charts, but this is how it really played out; bulls have a marginal psychological advantage at the moment, as the market could be challenging resistance starting from $544, up to $565; support remains near the previous lows;
*The MACD signal has bounced to more “normal”, but still very negative levels;
*Despite the heavy buying activity, Daily Dark Pools flows were not improved from the day before, standing at just 41.3% for the top S&P 500 companies; this is considered a bearish reading, as it falls below the 45% “neutral” threshold;
*The only top company to get a bullish reading yesterday from institutional flows was Walmart (WMT), with everything scoring below META being in bearish flows territory;
*The massive upside moves were aided by short-covering activity after the sharp declines of late, along with a big surge in the mega cap space;
*Many of the most influential stocks in the market logged double-digit percentage gains; NVIDIA (NVDA, +18.7%), Apple (AAPL, +15.3%), Tesla (TSLA, +22.6%), Microsoft (MSFT, +10.1%), and Amazon.com (AMZN, +12.0%) were huge beneficiaries of the surge in buying;
*All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed at least +3.9% higher; the technology sector led the upside charge, registering a +14.2% gain, followed by consumer discretionary (+11.4%) and communication services (+10.0%);
*However, we do warn that GEX has again flipped negative for every sector ETF and for SPY itself;
*For major sector ETFs, the percentage distance to their respective put and call walls has now normalized; the outsized difference recorded the day before, skewing risk- reward positive is simply no longer there;
*The huge move up was helped in part by the understanding that the $39 billion 10-yr note auction of the day was met with strong demand, particularly from foreign buyers; the 10-yr yield hit 4.50% and settled at 4.40%, which is still 14 basis points higher than the day before;
*TLT rose +059% by the end of the session, despite the shaky start in the morning; the benchmark long-term bonds ETF was unable to clear the pivot level at $89 for now;