/ April 21 (Easter Holiday in Europe)
Daily Briefing
*We’ll keep today’s note extra brief since our team is technically still on holiday for Easter!
*While the markets await the next Federal Reserve meeting, the uncertainty over monetary policy weighs on markets as much as the uncertainty about tariffs; This past week, the market reversed some of its gains from the massive “tariff reprieve” surge;
*With the MACD back on a buy signal and money flows turning positive, buyers are tepidly stepping back into the market; the 20-DMA continues to act as overhead resistance, defining the current downtrend; while there is undoubtedly a risk of another test of recent lows, which should be expected and why caution remains advisable, a break above the 20-DMA would lead to a rally to the 50-DMA and S1 level;
*As is always the case, the market prices in current events and looks forward with more optimistic expectations; while there are many media headline-driven narratives, the tariffs are now a well-known factor, and markets have priced most of the impact into current prices and valuations; furthermore, the bond market appears to have started resolving the recent “basis trade” blow-up, with bond yields and volatility declining;
*That’s it for now, we’ll be back with the full analysis tomorrow;