/ May 07
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Wednesday:
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fed Press Conference
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Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims (232K exp.)
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Friday:
Various Fed Speakers -
Wednesday:
Novo Nordisk A/S
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Walt Disney Company (The)
Arm Holdings plc
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Applovin Corporation
Fortinet, Inc.
Emerson Electric Company
Johnson Controls International plc
Cencora, Inc.
Daily Briefing
*The stock market fell under selling pressure for a second consecutive session; the S&P 500 dropped -0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite logged a -0.9% decline; consolidation efforts were among the driving factors in yesterday’s trade;
*Renewed tariff concerns and cautious corporate guidance were also driving factors; Ford (F, +2.7%) and Mattel (MAT, +2.8%), which both reported above-consensus Q1 earnings, held off on providing full-year guidance; Ford warned that tariffs may cut $1.5 billion from its profits, while Mattel acknowledged the volatile macro-environment and said it plans to raise toy prices;
*SPY has now been clearly rejected from S1 resistance ($566), and a consolidation move is underway; we would expect more buying interest to surface at around $540 (20-DMA), with downside at $511 if bids do not materialize; however, we would be more constructive on the medium term outlook, given that stock buybacks restart in earnest next week;
*The MACD signal is tapering off extremely elevated levels, as it would be expected given the recent surge in momentum;
*Dark Pools buying volume remains just slightly neutral at 47% for the top S&P 500 stocks; this reading is closer to a bearish disposition, especially for critical consumer-linked stocks like AAPL, TSLA and GOOG;
*On the bright side, NVDA and META have been well bid yet again;
*President Trump announced impending pharmaceutical tariffs, expected to be detailed within two weeks; this comes amid a U.S. trade deficit of $140.5 billion in March, driven by a preemptive surge in imports, including a $20.9 billion increase in imports of pharmaceutical preparations;
*Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an oversight hearing on Capitol Hill that some trade deals could be announced as early as this week and that up to 90% of deals could be completed by the end of the year, but stocks didn't react much;
*Investors will also closely monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy announcement for guidance on inflation and economic growth risks related to the tariffs; interest rate traders are currently pricing in a somewhat extended pause, lasting up to July, when the first cut is expected;
*Treasuries settled with gains. The 10-yr yield dropped four basis points to 4.31% and the 2-yr yield dropped five basis points to 3.79%.
*TLT gained +0.33% and is caught between recent levels of support and resistance; at the moment, long term treasuries are essentially range-trading with a slight upward bias; downside has been essentially capped at around $85, with 2 previous attempts not managing to push the ETF down meaningfully lower;